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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, analysts suggest that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.